A first-round loss via knockout to Dan Hooker at UFC 226 two years ago was a wake-up call for welterweight Gilbert Burns. He’s surged to five straight wins since that point, including an impressive first-round TKO victory over Demian Maia in his home country of Brazil on March 14. Now, Burns returns to Las Vegas, the scene of his last loss, as part of the main event against Tyron Woodley in UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns. It will all go down at the UFC’s Apex Facility on Saturday evening.

Burns is up to No. 6 in the UFC welterweight rankings. Nevertheless, Woodley is a -175 favorite (risk $175 to win $100), while Burns is a +155 underdog in the latest UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns odds at William Hill. In the co-main event, Augusto Sakai (-115) takes on Blagoy Ivanov (-105) in a matchup of heavyweight prospects. Before you finalize any UFC Fight night selections of your own, make sure you see what SportsLine MMA analyst Brandon Wise has to say

A CBS Sports editor specializing in MMA, Wise has been dissecting the sport for five years. He specializes in picking main-card fights for UFC, which has enabled him to be profitable every year. Wise’s memorable selections include Khabib Nurmagomedov’s destruction of Conor McGregor in 2018, Stipe Miocic’s upset of Daniel Cormier and Max Holloway’s downfall in 2019.

Across UFC 247, UFC 248 and UFC 249, Wise went 11-4 on his main-card picks, returning healthy profits for anyone following them. He posted a 4-1 mark for a profit of 3.55 units at UFC 249, including calling the main-event upset from Justin Gaethje (+155) against Tony Ferguson (-175). Wise reasoned that Gaethje’s power and relentless pressure would result in a stoppage victory, and he was proven correct when the one-sided bout was called off in the fifth round. Anyone who has consistently followed Wise is way up. 

Now, with UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns fast approaching, Wise carefully has studied every matchup on the main UFC fight card, identified the best value in the UFC odds and released his MMA picks for each main-card fight. Those selections are available here.

Tyron Woodley vs. Gilbert Burns preview

Wise knows both combatants in the main event will be looking to make a statement. Woodley (19-4-1), 38, has long had his share of detractors, with UFC president Dana White even once criticizing his performance in a title bout. He gave his naysayers plenty of ammunition, as he was listless and dominated by Kamaru Usman, squandering his title with little resistance. 

But at the top of his game, Woodley is one of the most fearsome strikers the welterweight division has ever seen. He set a record for the fastest knockout in the division’s history in a title bout when he stopped Robbie Lawler to win the crown in July 2016. He also stopped then-undefeated challenger Darren Till, who closed as a slight favorite, in their September 2018 title bout.

Burns (18-3), 33, has proven more than capable on the feet but is even more comfortable when the fight hits the mat. He won a silver medal at the 2009 World Jiu-Jitsu Championship. 

The Brazilian started his UFC career with a 3-3 mark, but has since ripped off fight straight wins with increasingly impressive outings. In what was expected to be a grappling match with fellow Jiu-Jitsu specialist Maia, Burns ended the fight with a crushing left hand in the first round. You can see all of Wise’s Woodley vs. Burns picks here.

Top UFC Fight Night predictions

We’ll share one of Wise’s UFC Fight Night predictions here: He is backing Spike Carlyle (+135) to upset Billy Quarantillo (-150) via stoppage in a battle of up-and-coming featherweight contenders. 

Carlyle brings in an impressive 9-1 career record. While most of those wins were piled up at the regional level, he proved himself by knocking out Aalon Cruz in the first round in February. Carlyle landed a whopping 20 significant strikes in that short amount of time. 

Wise told SportsLine that he sees this fight as having “the potential to deliver some significant crazy power punches from both fighters.” But he also sees it as much closer to even than the oddsmakers, leading him to take Carlyle at the lucrative price.

How to make Woodley vs. Burns picks

Wise also has strong picks for Burns vs. Woodley, Sakai vs. Ivanov and every other bout on the main UFC Fight Night card. He’s also backing one fighter who could “pummel his opponent.” You can get every pick at SportsLine.

Who wins Burns vs. Woodley? And how exactly does each fight end? See the latest UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Woodley odds below and then visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks on every bout on the main UFC Fight Night card, all from the accomplished expert who has gone 11-4 on the last three UFC events.

UFC Fight Night odds

Tyron Woodley (-175) vs. Gilbert Burns (+155)
Augusto Sakai (-115) vs. Blagoy Ivanov (-105)
Kevin Holland (-220) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (+180)
Roosevelt Roberts (-320) vs. Brok Weaver (+260)
Mackenzie Dern (-380) vs. Hannah Cifers (+310)