After a fast week off, the UFC is again in Vegas after the Nevada State Athletic Fee accepted the return of fight sports activities. With this approval, count on one other string of struggle playing cards between Las Vegas and the upcoming Struggle Island venue. Are you aware what this implies? MMA DFS isn’t going anyplace, so prepare for the journey. As for Saturday, UFC has us arrange with UFC Struggle Evening APEX, which is scheduled for 11 fights and shall be broadcast on ESPN kicking off at 6 pm ET.
Fantasy gamers can play this week at Draftkings, Fanduel, and Superdraft, as collectively over $1.5 million and rising shall be at grabs. Use this week as a warm-up as June sixth’s occasion already has a millionaire-maker event up as properly. Enormous stuff on the horizon for MMA DFS. Allow us to check out this week.
VENUE: UFC APEX
LOCATION: Las Vegas, Nevada
WELTERWEIGHT 170 LBS
#1 TYRON WOODLEY 19-4-1 VS #6 GILBERT BURNS 18-3
HEAVYWEIGHT 265 LBS
#12 BLAGOY IVANOV 18-Three VS #13 AUGUSTO SAKAI 14-1-1
CATCHWEIGHT 150 LBS
BILLY QUARANTILLO 13-2 VS SPIKE CARLYLE 9-1
LIGHTWEIGHT 155 LBS
ROOSEVELT ROBERT 9-1 VS BROK WEAVER 15-4
WOMEN’S STRAWWEIGHT 115 LBS
MACKENZIE DERN 7-1 VS HANNAH CIFERS 10-4
WOMEN’S FLYWEIGHT 125 LBS
#2 KATLYN CHOOKAGIAN 13-Three VS #12 ANTONINA SHEVCHENKO 8-1
WELTERWEIGHT 170 LBS
DANIEL RODRIGUEZ 11-1 VS GABRIEL GREEN 9-2
LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT 205 LBS
JAMAHAL HILL 7-Zero VS KLIDSON ABREAU 15-4
FLYWEIGHT 125 LBS
#11 TIM ELLIOT 15-10-1 VS BRANDON ROYVAL 10-4
BANTAMWEIGHT 135 LBS
LOUIS SMOLKA 16-6 VS CASEY KENNEY 13-2-1
FEATHERWEIGHT BOUT 145 LBS
CHRIS GUTIERREZ 14-3-1 VS VINCE MORALES 9-4
- Select energetic fighters. Coupling an energetic fighter on his or her solution to a unanimous determination gives you vital factors. Identical to another DFS conventional sport, you need the energetic, offensive participant that scores. Key metrics listed below are SLpM and TD AVG/15min.
- Play the heavyweights. The approximant total end price within the UFC is 54%. A lot of the weight divisions vary from 40%-60%, whereas the heavyweights push a 75% end price. You’ll obtain bonus factors for finishes inside the gap.
- Attempt all the time to incorporate the principle occasion or title fights. 5-round fights imply extra time to rack up factors if you happen to decide the fitting fighter. In some circumstances, even if in case you have the loser, the factors may be greater than a three-round winner.
- Don’t get excited and rush a decide based mostly on stats, take into account pattern measurement. Some fighters have restricted fights in comparison with their opponents when taking a look at metrics. Stats might be exaggerated. Do your analysis. Look ahead to spots with debuting fighters as properly. All the time examine the information of the opponents they confronted on their solution to the UFC. All the time pull struggle tape as properly. You’d be stunned at what you can see.
- Overview strategies of victory. I provide the end charges inside this text, and as you dive in, you’ll be able to examine the strategy of victory to the strategy of loss for the matchups. For instance, yow will discover matchups the place Fighter A has a excessive share of submission victories matched with Fighter B, with a excessive share of submission losses.
UFC APEX venue ideas
A story for DFS gamers to think about going into his card is the UFC’s determination to make use of its smaller, 25′ octagon on the APEX, as a substitute of the usual 30′ cage. Using the smaller octagon has traditionally elevated struggle end charges, and shortened common struggle occasions, because of the potential to create extra motion and engagement between the 2 fighters.
As talked about within the tip sheet above, right here’s my MMA DFS Warmth Chart for UFC APEX. As you’ll be able to see, the chart is ranked based mostly on struggle end odds. Struggle finishes are the place the factors are in MMA DFS. Take a look on the stack, and we’ll break down the person matchups under.
Two key offensive metrics are strikes and takedowns. They get off on their opponents; watch your factors rack up rapidly. This is my Offensive Output Meter for the cardboard. With this chart, you’ll be able to examine historic fighter averages in these two key metrics as I rank all fighters collaborating Saturday.
- Fighters who’ve possible odds on successful their fights inside the gap embody:
- Fighters least prone to win through end embody:
- Chookagian +800
- Cifers +750
- Weaver +685
- Gutierrez +645
- Fights with possible odds to not go to the choice:
- Dern/Cifers -185
- Quarantillo/Carlyle -175
- Burns/Woodley -150
- Elliott/Royval -110
- Fighters with the very best share of their wins through end:
- Inexperienced 100%
- Abreu 94%
- Rodriguez 91%
- Royval 90%
- Carlyle 89%
- Smolka 88%
- Fighters with the bottom share of their wins through end:
- Chookagian 23%
- Weaver 33%
- Shevchenko 38%
- Hill 43%
- Kenney 46%
- Bear in mind, the smaller cage is getting used. Fighters that sometimes press the motion, land takedowns, and/or excessive end charges matched up towards people who get completed, roster. (see my charts above)
- Check out the principle occasion clearly with the 5 rounds and better likelihood for a end. I like WOODLEY.
- The script is ready up for DERN to win through end right here.
- The wage wasn’t edited on DraftKings for Daniel Rodriguez. Inexperienced is taking the struggle towards him on 4 days’ discover. Rodriguez has a 91% end price, whereas Inexperienced, win or lose, has by no means seen the ultimate bell. RODRIGUEZ shall be excessive owned.
- Kenney vs. Smolka shall be everywhere. Smolka has been recognized to get himself into harmful positions for him to sneak a sub. I count on a number of takedowns on this one with these two and the small octagon in play. KENNEY is priced excessive however could hit worth.
- Though Hill ought to win, ABREU is a sneaky play. Hill can’t cease a takedown. Darko Stosic took him down six occasions again in January. Abreu has the skillset to do the identical, however he should keep away from the attain and hanging benefit Hill brings, and management from the highest so long as potential, as soon as he will get this one down. Punt play.
- As famous within the betting article, ROYVAL is a stay canine. Love his value level.
- MORALES vs. GUTIEREZ struggle could have a ton of motion. Anticipate some factors on this one to kick off the evening, in a struggle that will not be extremely owned.
- Two prime tier fighters really useful are DERN and WOODLEY.
- Two worth performs really useful are RODRIGUEZ and ROYVAL.
Good luck! I hope to see a few of you cashing after Saturday evening!