In only a couple extra weeks, we head to the a lot anticipated “Combat Island,” the place the UFC will host 4 occasions stay from Yas Island in Abu Dhabi. The playing cards are already being introduced, certainly one of which incorporates UFC 251, which is able to characteristic not one, not two, however three title fights simply on this one card alone.
Earlier than we get too excited concerning the marathon on deck, we now have fights to observe stay from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas Saturday evening! In the principle occasion, No. 10 Cynthia Calvillo (8-1-1) will transfer up a weight class and tackle former title challenger, and No. 1 ranked flyweight Jessica Eye (15-7). This can be a match that skilled some scrutiny by being billed as a essential occasion. Count on the women to convey some pleasure although, as Eye seems for back-to-back wins within the octagon, however to take action, she should fend off the prospect Calvillo, who, as talked about, will transfer as much as the flyweight division for the primary time in her professional profession.
Small cage once more, and what meaning! Tons of motion, together with the chance of extra finishes than the norm.
The cardboard will get underway at 6 pm ET and is scheduled for 11 matches in complete, which is able to air stay on ESPN/ESPN+ for the whole card.
UFC Combat Evening Saskatoon Particulars
DATE: SATURDAY 06/13/2020
BROADCAST: ESPN+
VENUE: UFC APEX
LOCATION: Las Vegas, Nevada
# of MATCHES: 10
MAIN CARD
WOMEN’S FLYWEIGHT, 125 LBS
#1 JESSICA EYE 15-7 VS #10 CYNTHIA CALVILLO 8-1-1
MIDDLEWEIGHT, 185 LBS
KARL ROBERSON 9-2 VS MARVIN VETTORI 14-3-1
BANTAMWEIGHT BOUT 135 LBS
MERAB DVALISHVILI 10-Four VS GUSTAVO LOPEZ 11-4
FEATHERWEIGHT BOUT 145 LBS
ANDRE FILI 20-7 VS CHARLES JOURDAIN 10-2
BANTAMWEIGHT BOUT 135 LBS
#13 JORDAN ESPINOSA 14-7 VS MARK DE LA ROSA 11-4
PRELIMS
LIGHTWEIGHT, 155 LBS
CHARLES ROSA 12-Four VS KEVIN AGUILAR 17-3
WOMEN’S FLYWEIGHT, 125LBS
MARIYA AGAPOVA 8-1 VS HANNAH CIFERS 10-5
WOMEN’S BANTAMWEIGHT, 135 LBS
JULIA AVILA 7-1 VS GINA MAZANY 6-3
FLYWEIGHT, 125 LBS
ZARRUKH ADASHEV 3-1 VS TYSON NAM 18-11-1
WELTERWEIGHT, 170 LBS
ANTHONY IVY 8-2 VS CHRISTIAN AGUILERA 13-6
Eye vs. Calvillo
Jessica Eye seems to proceed the momentum as she welcomes Cynthia Calvillo to the ladies’s flyweight division Saturday evening.
In terms of Jessica Eye, sadly, the very first thing that involves thoughts for a lot of is her sporting a bulletproof vest at faceoffs, solely to be slept by Valentina “Bullet” Shevchenko the following night. Eye had been on a three-fight win streak till that nasty head kick put the breaks on her run. She adopted up the loss with a decisive victory over Viviane Araujo final December, and can now look to make it two in a row towards the prospect Cynthia Calvillo. Calvillo, who’s had some inconsistency making weight at 115, strikes as much as flyweight to tackle the previous title contender within the evening’s essential occasion. Oddsmakers have the match up virtually a pick-em, and for my part rightfully so. I consider eliminating the powerful minimize to 115 will solely assist the artful Calvillo. This check will validate if she is usually a contender within the division shifting ahead, or if she ought to re-evaluate a transfer again to 115.
Eye has confronted extra notable names (Tate, Correia, Kaufmann, McMann, Shevchenko) and has the expertise in the principle occasion spot, coupled with the dimensions benefit. That stated, on the toes, the 2 fighters will probably be each very lively buying and selling photographs, with Eye the extra technical, which is able to finally trigger Calvillo to search for the takedowns. This will probably be a bonus for Calvillo, and an opportunity to lock in a submission try or two if she will be able to climate the dimensions disparity. Eye weighed in at 126.25, only a ¼ pound over the restrict, but vocalized that she was finished slicing and didn’t even suppose she might stand. With a contemporary Calvillo at this new weight class, and her capacity to show a few of her craftiness on the mat and 5 rounds to work, I’ll take a shot with the smaller fighter shifting up, in what can be the most important win of her profession.
PREDICTION: CYNTHIA CALVILLO -110
Different Wagers to Take into account
Marvin Vettori has been chomping on the bit for this match up. This matchup has already been canceled twice previously, as soon as because of the pandemic, after which most lately in Could, as Roberson fell ailing after the burden minimize. Friday morning, Vettori was the primary fighter on the dimensions, able to go, and simply 10 minutes into the weigh-ins, Roberson got here out to weigh in 4.5 lbs over the restrict. An apparent inform that Roberson wouldn’t be slicing weight using the weigh-in window. Count on Vettori to be much more heated than he already was again in Could, when the 2 virtually got here to blows within the lodge foyer, after Roberson withdrew. So long as Vettori can hold his feelings in examine, he ought to cruise.
PREDICTION: MARVIN VETTORI -200
Loser leaves city match? The loser might be seeing a pink slip after this one. Espinosa is the a lot better athlete and could have the wrestling benefit, together with energy on the toes. So long as he can keep away from the submissions, Espinosa ought to be capable of take not less than two of the three rounds and get again on observe.
PREDICTION: JORDAN ESPINOSA -175
Fast Predictions
- CYNTHIA CALVILLO defeats JESSICA EYE
- MARVIN VETTORI defeats KARL ROBERSON
- MERAB DVALISHVILI defeats GUSTAVO LOPEZ
- ANDRE FILI defeats CHARLES JOURDAIN
- JORDAN ESPINOSA defeats MARK DE LA ROSA
- KEVIN AGUILAR defeats CHARLES ROSA
- MARIYA AGAPOVA defeats HANNAH CIFERS
- JULIA AVILA defeats GINA MAZANY
- TYSON NAM defeats ZARRUKH ADASHEV
- ANTHONY IVY defeats CHRISTIAN AGUILERA
Final occasion prediction recap: 6-6
Combat card predictions total: 173-95-6 (65%)
Focused matchups (wagers): 62-26-2 (70%) Avg. odds -107
MMA DFS Performs & Methods
- Select lively fighters. Coupling an lively fighter on his or her option to a unanimous determination offers you key factors in your group. Identical to another DFS conventional sport, you need the lively, offensive participant that scores. Key metrics listed below are SLpM and TD AVG/15min.
- Play the heavyweights. The approximate total end price within the UFC is 54%. A lot of the weight divisions vary from 40%-60%, whereas the heavyweights push a 75% end price. You’ll obtain bonus factors for finishes inside the gap.
- Attempt all the time to incorporate the principle occasion or title fights. 5 spherical fights imply extra time to rack up factors in the event you choose the precise fighter. In some instances, even when you have the loser, the factors will be greater than a three-round winner.
- Don’t get excited and rush a choose based mostly on stats, contemplate pattern dimension. Some fighters have restricted fights in comparison with their opponents when metrics. Stats might be exaggerated. Do your analysis. Look ahead to spots with debuting fighters as nicely. At all times examine the information of the opponents they confronted on their option to the UFC. At all times pull struggle tape as nicely. You’d be stunned at what you can find.
- Evaluate strategies of victory. I provide the end charges inside this text, and as you dive in much more, you’ll be able to evaluate methodology of victory to methodology of loss for the matchups. For instance, you’ll find matchups the place Fighter A has a excessive share of submission victories matched up with Fighter B, with a excessive share of submission losses.
Have to Know – APEX Venue
A story for DFS gamers to contemplate going into his card is the UFC’s determination to roll with using its smaller, 25′ octagon on the APEX, as an alternative of the usual 30′ cage. The usage of the smaller octagon has traditionally elevated struggle end charges, and shortened common struggle instances, because of the capacity to create extra motion and engagement between the 2 fighters.
As talked about within the tip sheet above, right here’s my MMA DFS Warmth Chart for UFC Combat Evening. As you’ll be able to see, the chart is ranked based mostly on struggle end odds. Combat finishes are the place the factors are in MMA DFS. Take a look on the stack, and we are going to break down the person matchups under.
Two key offensive metrics are strikes and takedowns. They get off on their opponents and watch your factors rack up rapidly. This is my Offensive Output Meter for the cardboard. With this chart, you’ll be able to evaluate historic fighter averages in these two key metrics as I rank all fighters taking part Saturday.
Closing Suggestions
- Bear in mind the smaller cage is getting used. Fighters that sometimes press the motion, land takedowns, and/or excessive end charges matched up towards people who get completed, roster. (see my charts above)
- Check out the principle occasion clearly with the 5 rounds and better chance for a end. I like CALVILLO and her wage.
- DVALISHVILI and his common 7.Eight takedowns per 15 minutes, towards the very late substitute, needs to be enormous. He’s already been guess as much as -1000 in some spots.
- I like each AGAPOVA. Enormous dimension benefit.
- No disrespect, Gina Mazany in all probability needs to be on the roster. Julia AVILA all day.
- Fights favored to not go the gap embody IVY/AGUILERA (-230) and AVILA/MAZANY (-140).
- High-tier fighters to construct round embody DVALISHVILI and AVILA.
- Mid-tier fighter concerns are FILI and AGUILAR.
- Reside canines are CALVILLO AND JOURDAIN.
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