Final weekend’s primary card left a lot to be desired by way of highlight-reel finishes, however Saturday’s UFC Combat Night time slate figures to convey way more to the desk. Three of the 5 fights on the primary card are favored to complete inside the space together with the primary occasion between heavyweights Curtis Blaydes and Alexander Volkov.
Earlier than these action-packed primary card fights start, there are seven preliminary bouts starting at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN+ and ESPN.
Our specialists have listed their favourite bets on the whole slate beneath with evaluation on how they see every combat enjoying out.
UFC MAIN EVENT PROMO! Guess Curtis “Razor” Blaydes at +100 odds (boosted from -400) on Saturday evening.
Dann Stupp: Shane Burgos vs. Josh Emmett
UFC Contributor at The Motion Community
Combat followers can count on a slugfest in tonight’s co-main occasion with featherweights Shane Burgos and Josh Emmett, who ought to provide loads of output throughout their three-rounder.
The highest-10 featherweights are each on a little bit of a streak; No. eight Emmett (15-2) has gained two straight fights and 4 of his previous 5, and Burgos (13-1) has strung collectively three consecutive victories since a 2018 loss to contender Calvin Kattar, which marked his first profession setback.
Though the road for tonight’s matchup has danced round over the previous month, it’s settled again close to its opening worth, and with Burgos at -155, I feel there’s loads of worth there.
For me, a easy pros-and-cons checklist has me feeling fairly assured on this decide. Among the many execs of a Burgos decide, there’s an ample top (5 inches) and attain (5.5 inches) benefit, which is at all times a bonus in a possible slugfest. Moreover, the ever-busy Tiger Schulmann product has had almost twice the hanging output of Emmett all through their UFC careers. As a bonus, Burgos can also be shrewd along with his power and leaves loads of it for later rounds, which helped him beat each Charles Rosa and Makwan Amirkhani with third-round knockouts below the UFC umbrella.
Among the many cons of a Burgos decide, it’s arduous to miss Emmett’s in depth wrestling background. Nonetheless, for no matter motive, the Workforce Alpha Male product has been hesitant to use these abilities, and even with the smaller 25-foot cage that’s getting used tonight, I don’t count on him to immediately pivot away from his latest propensity to face and bang. Moreover, although Burgos absorbs plenty of injury (particularly early) and although Emmett has some confirmed energy, I feel Burgos’ sturdiness ought to assist him survive any potential early hassle and push this into later rounds.
In actual fact, the longer this combat goes, the extra I like Burgos. (It’s simply too dangerous this isn’t a five-round primary occasion). And since I count on this combat to go to the scorecards – or not less than deep into the third spherical – plus cash on the over can also be too arduous to go up.
Picks: Burgos -155; Over 2.5 rounds (+125)
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Sean Zerillo: Raquel Pennington vs. Marion Reneau
Betting Analyst, The Motion Community
There may be an 11-year age hole between these two fighters, and stamina must be a major concern for the 42-year-old Reneau.
That is one more combat that’s prone to go the space, listed at -278, or 73.5% within the betting market, however the crowd projection places it nearer to 86%, implied odds of -613.
I can’t belief both fighter on the moneyline, whatever the projections – Pennington has seemed unmotivated since her title combat loss to Amanda Nunes, however she stays a championship-level expertise. In distinction, Reneau’s abilities and athleticism have fallen off over time, and she is going to seemingly gasoline out early.
This must be a detailed determination, however I don’t anticipate a stoppage for both fighter, and I’ll embrace over 2.5 rounds in a parlay.
Choose: Over 2.5 rounds (-335)
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Malik Smith: Belal Muhammad vs. Lyman Good
Editor, The Motion Community
This combat was initially alleged to happen on the UFC 249 card, however was scratched when Good grew to become the primary UFC fighter to check constructive for COVID-19. The types of each fighters plus the scale of the APEX ring ought to produce a enjoyable matchup.
Good is an absolute banger and will land some fight-changing photographs if he will get a gap. His most up-to-date end towards Probability Rencountre confirmed simply how harmful his energy could be.
Good’s skillset is completely suited to a combat that stays on the ft as he ranks third amongst energetic welterweights in hanging differential (1.86) per UFC Stats.
Muhammad, although, is the extra properly rounded fighter between the 2. His benefits on the bottom can be the distinction if he can get Good off his ft — his 2.15 takedown common per 15 dwarfs Good’s 0.38 takedown price. Muhammad can also be a artful striker who can use awkward angles to get inside and land clear photographs. He landed some massive punches in his previous two fights that ultimately wore his opponent down en path to a win.
The percentages recommend that Muhammad (-135) wins this combat 54% of the time with the most definitely technique being by determination (+132). However the smaller octagon on the APEX has compelled fighters to have interaction in shut quarters and that would think about with these two guys having much less area to bop round one another. I feel there’s a great likelihood that certainly one of these two fighters’ dominant types might result in this combat ending early. With that stated, I’m leaning in the direction of betting the combat to not go the space (+120).
Choose: Will the combat go the space? No (+120)
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