Mark Stine is off this week, so our former resident UFC DFS handicapper, Josh Engleman is stepping in to provide the MMA DFS Picks you want for UFC Battle Night time: Poirier vs. Hooker. Not a member of Awesemo+? Join HERE to realize entry to all our premium information, projections & instruments for DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft and extra! Comply with us on all of our social channels! Try our Twitter, Fb, Instagram and YouTube for extra nice Awesemo content material.
And don’t neglect to tune into Reside Earlier than Lock this afternoon at 3:30 ET with Jason Floyd and Pete “The Warmth” Rogers because the breakdown your entire card and reply all of your questions.
High UFC DFS Money Performs (FanDuel + DraftKings)
In the case of money recreation performs, the primary place to start out is with our projected possession. Evaluating the outcomes of my crunches to our projected possession permits me to see who my clear money choices are for a slate. On this case, Sean Woodson and Brendan Allen are musts on each websites. Woodson is projected to be probably the most owned fighter on DK & FD. Allen is projected because the third-most owned fighter on DraftKings, whereas being tied with Woodson on FanDuel. Each guys are heavy favorites (70%+ probability of profitable), which shouldn’t be a lot of a shock. They couple these odds with higher than 50/50 odds of getting a end. That’s what is really necessary.
Within the High Fighters instrument, you possibly can take a look at the percentages of somebody scoring 100 factors. As of proper now, Allen and Woodson are available in at 39% and 37% respectively. These charges put each guys within the top-4, simply behind Dustin Poirier and Mike Perry.
When push involves shove, any win is sweet for money. For me, Allen and Woodson are the 2 best money performs on the slate, no matter web site.
High MMA DFS GPP Performs (FanDuel + DraftKings)
GPP performs are fairly totally different. My aim is to deal with guys I consider are under-owned relative to their odds of success. Utilizing the possession projections and prime fighters instrument, this course of is tremendous straightforward.
Dan Hooker – MVP
If I’m in a GPP on FanDuel, utilizing Hooker as my MVP is my favourite play. Hooker initiatives to be the highest scorer on the slate 10% of the time. That’s the second highest mark on the cardboard behind Poirier. His projected possession within the MVP slot is half of that, which creates the largest leverage spot of all fighters. Only for instance, Perry has the third-best odds of being the highest scorer, however his MVP possession is 2x that of Hooker.
That’s not the one purpose Hooker stands out. Between the MVP spot and common lineup spots, Poirier is projected for 58% whole possession. If Hooker picks up the win, you already know that you just’ll solely be competing with the opposite 42% of lineups within the contest. Poirier makes for a strong money play, however at this second, going towards him on FanDuel offers you the very best probability of taking down a GPP.
Lins suits the same mould for me on DraftKings, though I’m nonetheless utilizing him closely on FanDuel. On DK, Lins has the best leverage rating on your entire card. He’s in a coin-flip battle, however he’s solely bringing in 16% projected possession. Contemplating we mission him to be a High 6 scorer 25% of the time, I’m trying to are available in at 2x the sector or extra. At $8300, Lins works in any lineup construct, so you should not have any bother ensuring he suits. There’s no purpose that Tanner Boser needs to be projected for extra possession than Lins given what we all know proper now. This all holds true on FanDuel, too. Lins is definitely CHEAPER than Boser on FD. Attempt to put the Andrei Arlovski battle out of your thoughts. Lins is what you’re searching for in a GPP.