UFC 251 is going down at 6:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, July 11, and on this article, I’m trying on the fights the place I believe the winner has an opportunity to attain massive DraftKings fantasy factors and break the MMA Millionaire slate.
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Kamaru Usman ($8,900; -250) vs. Jorge Masvidal ($7,300; +200)
Of the three title fights on Saturday’s card, that is the one which I believe has essentially the most fantasy upside. I believe the winner is a close to lock to be within the high lineup in DraftKings tournaments. It’s additionally a struggle that may garner a ton of possession and getting the winner right shouldn’t be solely going to be pivotal, however will present a ton of leverage because the dropping fighter will probably be one of many larger owned fighters on the slate.
That is the principle occasion, though this wasn’t at all times the case. Kamaru Usman was scheduled to tackle Gilbert Burns, who was compelled to withdraw from the struggle after testing optimistic for COVID-19. Simply when it seemed like Usman can be pulled off the cardboard, Jorge Masvidal stepped up on brief discover to take the struggle.
Whereas taking the struggle on every week’s discover is a giant ask, it seems Masvidal has been making ready for a struggle towards Usman for some time. I don’t anticipate his conditioning to be a lot of a problem and we are able to’t neglect that Masvidal stepped into the struggle sport on brief discover. He took his first paid struggle on simply minutes discover whereas he was at a McDonald’s consuming lunch. Masvidal obtained a name to struggle a Kimbo Slice protege in a laundromat parking zone. He ending consuming, drove over and received the struggle. It grew to become a viral video on YouTube, and similar to that, his combating profession started. Masvidal is a fighter and his nickname of “Gamebred” is well-deserved.
Though I believe that Masvidal is dwell on this struggle, I’ve to favor Usman. Masvidal will probably have a bonus on the toes, though it may not be as important as most individuals assume. Usman truly lands strikes at the next charge than Masvidal. As well as, Usman additionally absorbs much less strikes per minute than Masvidal. Usman lands 4.6 important strikes per minute and absorbs 2.17 per minute whereas Masvidal lands 4.33 important strikes per minute and absorbs 2.94.
With the above info mentioned, I don’t assume Usman goes to look to strike with Masvidal for prolonged durations of time. I believe he’ll (and will) look to get into clinch conditions, take down Masvidal and land floor and pound. That is the place Usman has the most important benefit. He lands 3.44 takedowns per 15 minutes and although Masvidal has stable takedown protection, we’ve seen him battle to take care of wrestling strain when he’s spammed with takedown makes an attempt. This was most evident within the struggle towards Demian Maia. He tried 12 takedowns, touchdown 4 of them and managed Maia on the bottom for a lot of the struggle. Usman is a a lot stronger wrestler than Maia and I anticipate him to land at the very least just a few takedowns if he applies his regular relentless strain. That is what I consider is his finest path to successful the struggle and placing up a lofty DraftKings rating.
Prediction: Kamaru Usman by unanimous choice
Makwan Amirkhani ($8,600; -215) vs. Danny Henry ($7,600; +170)
Many of the fights on Saturday’s card are anticipated to go the gap. This isn’t a kind of fights. It’s slotted at -177 to complete inside the gap, making it one of many fights most probably to finish in a stoppage. This is among the causes I anticipate the winner to attain nicely on DraftKings. As well as, each of those fighters have a historical past of scoring nicely in victories. Amirkhani has scored at the very least 85.5 DKFP in 4 of his 5 UFC wins and Henry has scored over 100 DKFP in every of his wins within the UFC.
As for the most probably final result for this struggle ending, I believe it should probably be on the bottom by way of submission. Each of those fighters are succesful submission grapplers and Henry is usually keen to take possibilities on the mat. For that reason, three of his final 4 fights have resulted in a submission and 5 of his final six fights have ended inside the gap. Henry has been on each the successful and dropping ends of those finishes.
There’s extra cause to assume this struggle will finish with a submission as a result of Amirkhani’s struggle type. He’s a really aggressive wrestler, making this struggle very more likely to find yourself on the bottom most of the time. Amirkhani lands 3.39 takedowns per 15 minutes and Henry doesn’t have the best takedown protection. The weak point to Amirkhani’s sport is his cardio. He sometimes tires if he doesn’t get an early end, as we noticed in his final struggle towards Shane Burgos. After an incredible first spherical the place he almost earned a end, Amirkhani gassed and was crushed up badly within the remaining two rounds. Particularly because of the present coaching circumstances surrounding COVID, I doubt that Amirkhani can struggle three exhausting spherical. For that reason, I believe it’s both going to be Amirkhani by submission early or Henry takes over within the second and third rounds. Each warrant publicity in GPP and I’ll probably be near a 50/50 cut up on these two fights. I lean barely in direction of Amirkhani as my choose for the struggle since I do assume he has the higher abilities of the 2 fighters.
Prediction: Makwan Amirkhani by first spherical submission
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Karol Rosa ($9,200; -240) vs. Vanessa Melo ($7,000; +185)
More than likely, this struggle shouldn’t be going to finish with a end. It has a prop of -305 to go the gap, though that doesn’t essentially scare me off this struggle. The extra I take a look at the metrics, the extra I believe the winner of this struggle has an opportunity to attain nicely on DraftKings.
In Rosa’s first UFC struggle, she received a call and scored 125.5 DKFP. She didn’t land any takedowns, and there was no groundwork, only a torrid charge of putting. Rosa landed 171 important strikes in a three-round struggle whereas her opponent, Lara Procopio, landed 165 important strikes. On one hand, the stat keeper might have been feeling a bit beneficiant that day. Alternatively, it’s actually robust for me to disregard that sort of output. The struggle began with the 2 women assembly in the course of the octagon and throwing palms for 15 minutes with out a lot of a break within the motion. Since Melo absorbs 6.Eight important strikes per minute, I believe there’s an opportunity we might see extra of the identical on this struggle. The final time we noticed Melo in a arise affair that went the gap, Irene Aldana landed 125 important strikes towards her. Melo is extraordinarily hittable.
The ultimate cause I like this struggle is that I doubt it’s going to hold a lot possession. Since Rosa is priced across the the favorites within the title fights and a large favourite in Amanda Ribas ($9,500), it stands to cause that Rosa might be lowest-owned of the most costly tier of fighters. In huge GPP that pays $1M to first with virtually half the prize pool going to the highest lineup, it is sensible to take some pictures on a fighter who might be low-owned with an opportunity for upside. Rosa is in a positive matchup and scored 125.5 DKFP in her final bout. The upside must be obvious, however will probably go ignored.
Prediction: Karol Rosa by unanimous choice
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