We’ve bought a wild night time of fights with UFC 251 this Saturday. Tonight’s card options three title fights, headlined by welterweights Kamaru Usman and Jorge Masvidal at Battle Island in Abu Dhabi, and DFS lineups will lock at 6 p.m. ET.
We’ve have constructed out a full player-projection mannequin to assist us try to put collectively some successful DFS lineups in UFC.
The mannequin, created by my colleague Sean Koerner, is predicated on 10,000 simulations of all 12 fights. He then pulled the DraftKings rating from every combat to create flooring, median, and ceiling projections for each fighter. Right here is how he outlined every projection:
- Ground: Fighter has an 80% probability of going over this rating, 20% probability of going below
- Median: Fighter has a 50% probability of going over this rating, 50% probability of going below
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% probability of going over this rating, 80% probability of going below
These ought to give us a greater sense as to which fighters we must always goal based mostly upon the sport kind — maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for instance.
One other software that you should use to make it simpler to establish which fighters to make use of within the large tournaments is Excellent%.
Excellent% is the proportion of the time that fighter finishes within the ‘excellent/optimum lineup’ based mostly on my simulations. It’s value noting that that is factoring within the “excellent lineup” that meets the DraftKings price range of $50,000 or much less. Due to this fact that is the proper metric to make use of when attempting to determine the perfect fighters to make use of within the MMA Million.
The Straightforward Chalk
Amanda Ribas ($9500)
We’ve got to start out with probably the most vital favourite on the slate, and one of many extra vital MMA favorites that you will notice as Ribas (-835) faces the favored Paige VanZant. Ribas received by submission in her UFC Debut (100 DraftKings factors) and has scored 77 and 95 DraftKings factors in her previous two wins by way of resolution.
Saturday’s combat is a 50/50 proposition on whether or not it goes the gap.
Ribas is anticipated to win by submission 28% of the time — and that early end upside provides her the third-highest ceiling score on the slate and lands her within the excellent lineup 35% of the time (4th) — however she additionally has the very best flooring (75.5 factors) projection as such a agency favourite.
Karol Rosa ($9200)
Rosa landed greater than 170 vital strikes in her UFC debut and has sufficient cumulative energy to generate a second- or third-round end. My crowdsourced projection says that she is probably the most undervalued fighter on Saturday’s card, making her a 90% favourite, whereas listed odds suggest that her likelihood is nearer to 70%.
She generated 126 DraftKings factors in that three-round debut, and I’d think about that she is going to go neglected at her worth level, on the undercard, in comparison with the high-priced favorites on the principle card. Word that her opponent, Vanessa Melo, weighed in additional than 5 kilos over the restrict for this combat.
The Upside Performs
Makwan Amirkhani ($8600)
“Mr. Finland” (23.2% excellent score) might end the combat vs. Danny Henry ($7600) by submission at +175 (implied 36.6%) at any level, however notably within the first spherical at +300 (implied 25%) – which he has executed 9 instances earlier than. The truth that Amirikhani’s excellent score and first-round end odds align so carefully means that that’s his solely path to the optimum lineup at his mid-range worth level.
Muslim Salikhov ($8200)
The Russian is listed at +188 (implied 35%) to win by KO/TKO within the winning-method market, Salikhov provides a path to the optimum lineup (24%), however his general hanging output is just not notably excessive.
Max Holloway ($7100)
“Blessed” has averaged 148 vital strikes over his previous three fights — all of which went the five-round distance, and his 290 vital strike efficiency in a four-round TKO win over Bryan Ortega (190 DraftKings factors) stays one of the crucial spectacular efforts in MMA historical past. He’s a fairly stable cash-game play, scoring 91 and 67 DraftKings factors regardless of shedding two of his previous three fights — and he could make his approach into the optimum lineup with a win greater than 30% of the time.
The Swing Fights
Kamaru Usman ($8900) vs. Jorge Masvidal ($7300)
How good is Saturday night time’s principal occasion? Koerner’s projections have one or each of Masvidal or Usman touchdown within the optimum lineup greater than 98% of the time. Each are priced very moderately — the one two fighters to generate a cut price score increased than 90% — and you must most likely have publicity to 1 or the opposite in every of your lineups.
Usman has the very best median (109) and ceiling (130) projections on the slate and is the one fighter apart from Ribas (10.3) to crack double digits (12.3) in projected factors per $1000 of wage.
Usman has landed a median of 148 vital strikes over his previous three fights whereas recording 12 takedowns towards Rafael dos Anjos (176 DraftKings factors) — and I count on that type of ceiling efficiency from the champion in a five-round win by way of resolution — and would need a minimum of 100 vital strikes with 5 takedowns.
Masvidal doesn’t have a very excessive ceiling projection (97), rating 11th on the slate, but when “Gambred” wins the combat, he seemingly lands within the optimum lineup at his worth level. My crowdsourced projection has him successful the bout and the welterweight belt 35% of the time — a number of ticks off from his excellent forecast.
The fan-favorite Masvidal has been a classy underdog betting decide this week, and I do count on that help to hold over to DFS, which seemingly makes Usman the worth facet for DFS lineups.
Rose Namajunas ($9000) vs. Jessica Andrade ($7200)
Like Masvidal, Andrade shall be a preferred underdog choice in DFS lineups. She received the primary match towards Namajunas by way of KO, has a historical past of recording stoppages, and has scored greater than 100 DraftKings factors, twice, in three-round resolution victories. Andrade owns the third-highest excellent score on the slate, at 38%.
Namajunas ranks fourth by ceiling projection (103), however I like her to win by a call on this rematch, and he or she has not scored effectively in DFS when successful on the scorecards (18.5 DraftKings factors per spherical). Rose wants a end to make herself playable, however extra importantly, she will be able to damage a ton of lineups that key upon Andrade.
I’d ensure to incorporate Andrade in a minimum of one-quarter of your lineups, nevertheless.
Pictured above: Kamaru Usman of Nigeria.
Picture credit score: Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Photos.