UFC Battle Night time: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2 begins Saturday at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN and ESPN+ with seven preliminary fights.
The primary card begins at Eight p.m. ET that includes 5 bouts, together with the Flyweight title struggle and rematch between Joseph Benavidez and Deiveson Figueiredo.
Along with moneylines and Over/Unders, there are quite a few methods to wager on an MMA struggle — together with precise successful strategies, successful spherical props, and whether or not or not the match will go to a call or end inside the space.
Because of this, after analyzing the entire betting choices, your typical UFC card can provide a considerable quantity of actionable worth.
Under, yow will discover my crowdsourced truthful odds projections for every of Wednesday’s 11 bouts, together with forecasts for these fights to complete inside the space, moneylines, or for both fighter to win by determination, knockout, or Submission; with evaluation and picks for my Saturday bets under.
UFC Battle Night time: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez
Heavyweight struggle: Carlos Felipe vs. Serghei Spivak
Crowdsourced Projections: Spivak 52%
Typically, betting the Over on rounds within the UFC Heavyweight division is a contrarian, however worthwhile funding – however I’m not so certain what to make of the primary struggle on Saturday’s card, which the gang tasks to complete inside the space 78% of the time – extra usually than all however one struggle on Saturday night time.
Carlos Felipe has gained six of his eight profession victories by first-round knockout, whereas Sergei Spivak has completed all 10 of his wins – six submissions and 4 knockouts – together with eight within the first spherical.
The Brazilian, Felipe, is making his debut within the octagon in opposition to a UFC veteran (43% win price), and he hasn’t fought professionally since Might 2017 resulting from PED suspensions. Be aware that fighters who return off of a layoff of multiple 12 months win lower than 40% of the time within the UFC.
Each fighters are younger at 25-years-old, and Felipe definitely might have made vital strides up to now three years of coaching. Nonetheless, I’m not notably serious about backing a knockout artist in his first struggle off of the juice – regardless of the projected line worth.
Spivak opened as a +110 underdog for this bout however has steadily taken cash to push his odds close to -173 as of writing.
At this level, the worth now lies with the underdog, both on the moneyline or by KO/TKO at +260 (implied 27.7%), which the gang projected at +142 (implied 41.3%).
Moreover, Felipe to win in Spherical 1 (+400) or Spherical 2 (+850), really feel like viable performs in case you are going the underdog route right here – however there are too many unknowns about Felipe’s present ability set.
Given these questions, I’ve to move on this struggle, however Spivac isn’t a very gifted Heavyweight prospect, and that is an underdog or move spot for the UFC newcomer.
Whatever the end result, you’ll be able to in all probability anticipate to see an early end, and betting the struggle to complete inside the space (-200) presents worth relative to the gang projection (-355).
Felipe vs. Spivac Bets
Light-weight struggle: Davi Ramos vs. Armon Tsarukyan
Crowdsourced Projections: Tsarukyan 78%
I’m shocked to search out this scrap because the second bout on Saturday’s card, as Tsarukyan is a younger (23-years-old) and gifted prospect whereas Ramos is an especially competent UFC veteran.
The 10-year age hole stands out – when there’s a minimal of 9 years of an age distinction between rivals, the youthful fighter wins 63% of the time within the UFC, and favorites win 67% of the time at common odds of -141 (implied 58.5%), so that may be a built-in edge.
He’s additionally the bigger fighter (two inches of peak and attain) and higher striker on this matchup in opposition to Ramos – a world-class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner who struggles to get fights to the mat along with his wrestling.
Tsarukyan is a reliable grappler and the extra well-rounded fighter, nonetheless, and I belief him to get the struggle again to the toes if he does get taken down in some unspecified time in the future.
On the toes, Ramos seemingly doesn’t stand an opportunity of maintaining by way of quantity – he landed simply 5 of 58 (8.2%) vital strikes in his final struggle in opposition to Islam Makchachev and absorbed 88 of 148 complete strikes (59%).
Tsarukyan misplaced to Makachev in his UFC debut and landed 13 of 43 vital strikes, and 60 of his 90 complete strike makes an attempt in a three-round loss.
The group projected Tsarukyan’s truthful moneyline odds at -355 for Saturday, and he presents worth as a standalone wager or a parlay piece. His prop odds to win by determination (-120) additionally present worth relative to the projection (-197).
Tsarukyan vs. Ramos Bets
- Use Tsarukyan as a parlay piece
- Tsarukyan by determination -120 (0.5 items)
Flyweight struggle: Malcolm Gordon vs. Amir Albazi
Crowdsourced Projections: Albazi 63%
The moneyline projection is spot on for this struggle between a pair of UFC newcomers, and the solely bets that probably provide worth are the Sure (-115) on the struggle to go the space, in comparison with listed odds of -185, or Albazi by determination (+188) in comparison with a projection at +127.
I’m not notably serious about putting these bets, nonetheless. Just lately, undercard fights have seen a considerably increased proportion of finishes as in comparison with principal card fights – as rivals attempt to show their price within the UFC.
Moreover, I’m not assured within the chin on both competitor on this matchup – having seen each males get rocked early in fights – and each are submission artists preferring to hunt for a end on the bottom versus prioritizing management.
Because of this, this bout is a full move for me – there simply isn’t sufficient info to go on, and this struggle might play out in quite a lot of methods.
A last notice, nonetheless – Gordon makes use of a change stance, and change fighters beat orthodox fighters 57.7% of the time (421-308) within the UFC.
Albazi vs. Gordon Bets
Bantamweight struggle: Brett Johns vs. Montel Jackson
Crowdsourced Projections: Jackson 65%
Jackson would be the noticeably bigger fighter on Saturday, with a three-inch peak, and four-inch attain benefit. He additionally has the southpaw edge (53.9% win price) in opposition to an orthodox opponent.
Jackson can have a transparent benefit on the toes, with a +2.65 vital strike differential, in comparison with a mark of -0.97 for Johns, along with considerably higher accuracy (+7%) and protection (+4%).
Johns is exceptionally sturdy, and his wrestling (4.29 takedowns per 15 minutes, 52% accuracy) presents issues for anybody within the Bantamweight division. Nonetheless, Jackson isn’t any slouch both within the grappling division (4.84 takedowns per 15 minutes, 79% accuracy, 70% takedown protection).
He’s additionally bettering quickly, ascending to an especially excessive degree with just some years of MMA coaching below his belt.
This struggle is a giant check for the prospect in opposition to a former Cage Warriors and Titan FC champion, whose solely UFC losses are to high abilities – Pedro Munhoz and Aljamain Sterling – and I do fear that this is likely to be an excessive amount of too quickly for Jackson.
However I additionally wouldn’t be shocked if he shortly took care of enterprise, given his accelerated developmental path.
The group projection seems to be spot-on for all points of this struggle, and it must be a aggressive and thrilling undercard bout that I’m completely happy simply to take a seat again and watch.
Jackson vs. Johns Bets
Light-weight struggle: Joe Duffy vs. Joel Alvarez
Crowdsourced Projections: Duffy 65%
This line instantly caught my consideration – with Duffy listed as essentially the most vital favourite on Saturday night time, on the heels of two straight losses and winless since March 2017.
The placing stats between Duffy and Ramos are nearly an identical – albeit by only a pair of UFC bouts for the Spaniard, who completed his first UFC win on the bottom almost one 12 months in the past:
“El Fenomeno” has completed all 16 of his profession wins (14 submissions, two knockouts), and I feel that he’s a really stay underdog on Saturday night time.
He’s the bigger man, with a four-inch peak and four-inch attain benefit, however his wrestling will not be almost adept sufficient to dominate the grappling exchanges.
Johns is considerably extra technical on the toes, however I do anticipate Alvarez to have his moments, nonetheless, and the potential for the end must be there.
Alvarez by determination (+460) technically presents worth, for the reason that crowd sees the struggle going the space 59% of the time. Nonetheless, given his historical past of finishes, I’ll make a small play on the underdog moneyline, which the gang set at +186.
Alvarez vs. Duffy Bets
- Joel Alvarez +260 (0.5 items)
Catch weight struggle: Grant Dawson vs. Nad Narimani
Crowdsourced Projections: Dawson 82%
Dawson and Tsarukyan are my two favourite parlay items on Saturday’s card.
Dawson has recorded 11 of his 15 profession wins by Submission, together with 9 by rear-naked choke, and he ought to have a adequate grappling benefit over Saturday’s opponent, Nad Narimani.
Moreover, Dawson is each longer and taller by two inches, and he fights out of a change stance (57% win price vs. orthodox).
Narimani’s two UFC wins got here in opposition to smaller fighters in Anderson Dos Santos (5’5, 70″ attain) and Khalid Taha (5’5″, 69″ attain), however Dawson (5’10”, 72″ attain) is a completely differential animal – and that measurement will solely assist in the grappling exchanges.
Narimani has by no means been submitted, however he has additionally by no means confronted a grappler of Dawson’s caliber (5.04 takedowns per 15 minutes, 48% accuracy, 2.5 submissions per 15 minutes). His takedown protection (75%) might be very important to maintain the struggle standing.
Dawson by submission (+250) is an interesting prop play – the gang projected that end result at -101 – and I’ll be discovering methods to play Dawson’s moneyline – both as a one-off or by together with him in parlays.
He’s relentless on the mat, and the gang tasks his truthful moneyline at -455 (implied 82%) for Saturday, a 10.6% edge in comparison with listed odds (-250).
Dawson vs. Narimani Bets
- Use Dawson as a parlay piece.
- Dawson by Submission (+250, 0.5 items)
Mild heavyweight struggle: Roman Dolidze vs. Kahdis Ibragimov
Crowdsourced Projections: Dolidze 75%
A wierd Mild Heavyweight bout concludes the undercard on Saturday, as Kahdis Ibragimov fights for his UFC life in opposition to newcomer Roman Dolidze, who hasn’t fought since a 2018 PED suspension.
As I discussed for the primary struggle of the night time with Carlos Felipe, I merely can not again a fighter of their first bout after a PED suspension given the query marks surrounding their probably decreased athleticism, energy, and velocity.
Moreover, like Felipe, Dolidze is coming off of a long-layoff (40% win price) and making his UFC debut in opposition to an octagon veteran (43% win price), so I see quite a few causes to keep away from backing him as a favourite on this spot, regardless of the gang projection.
Ibragimov had loads of promise earlier than arriving within the UFC, however he’s probably on the chopping block with a loss right here, so you’ll be able to anticipate to see a motivated effort from the underdog.
Based on the gang projection, that is the almost definitely struggle of the night to complete inside the space (82%), and Dolidze by KO/TKO (+165) is, subsequently, the apparent wager, in comparison with a crowd projection of -170.
The chances for the within the space prop ought to, subsequently, be -455, and there may be actionable worth in comparison with the listed odds (-210).
However like the primary struggle on the cardboard, there are too many query marks surrounding one fighter, and it is a particular move for me.
Dolidze vs. Ibragimov Bets
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Flyweight struggle: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Askar Askarov
Crowdsourced Projections: Pantoja 65%
I couldn’t discover any betting worth on the primary struggle on the principle card, an intriguing scrap between undefeated Russian prospect Askar Askarov, and Brazilian Alexandre Pantoja – who has been getting ready for Askarov and each Flyweights competing for the belt within the Principal Occasion; Pantoja would have stepped in if both Benavidez or Figueiredo had missed weight or examined constructive for COVID-19.
Pantoja is the higher striker and finisher, and he fights at a barely increased tempo – all indicators that time to him as a assured favourite over Askarov.
Askarov is probably going the higher wrestler, whereas Pantoja is the higher jiu-jitsu practitioner, so the scrambles may very well be each notably thrilling and result-altering on this struggle.
However the projection says that the moneyline and prop odds all look like appropriate, apart from the odds on the struggle to go the space (-235), which presents a slight edge relative to the gang projection (-280).
Askarov vs. Pantoja Bets
Ladies’s Flyweight struggle: Ariane Lipski vs. Luana Carolina
Crowdsourced Projections: Lipski 61%
Lipski and Carolina are each Brazilian and are available from an analogous placing background, so you’ll be able to anticipate 15 minutes of standup motion between these two Flyweights, in a struggle that the gang tasks to go the space 87% of the time.
The group projection additionally reveals a slight edge on Lipski, the previous KSW champion, who’s a greater technician and has extra expertise in opposition to a better degree of competitors – however I’m involved about her output all through three rounds.
She was out-struck 85-53 and 108-68 in her first two UFC fights – each losses through unanimous determination, and he or she solely landed 9 complete vital strikes within the second and third spherical mixed of her lone UFC win final November.
Carolina let her fingers and legs fly (6.53 vital strikes per minute) in her UFC debut, and the judges have been siding with quantity versus energy on Battle Island (see Tim Elliott vs. Ryan Benoit and Max Holloway vs. Alexander Volkanovski II).
Lipski’s deficiencies are in her grappling sport, and in a toe-to-toe placing battle for 15 minutes, maybe she picks up the quantity a bit. I definitely anticipate her to have the cleaner and sharper strikes in these exchanges.
A possible lack of quantity is my solely concern for Lipski, and there isn’t a big pattern to go off of right here as regards to Carolina.
The crowd projection reveals a small edge on Lipski, whereas additionally suggesting that her odds to win by determination (+150) must be nearer to -113, given her favoritism – and I’ll make a small plus-money play.
Carolina vs. Lipski Bets
- Lipski by determination (+150, 0.5 items)
Light-weight struggle: Marc Diakiese vs. Rafael Fiziev
Crowdsourced Projections: Diakese 72%
After a three-fight dropping streak, Marc Diakiese made some tweaks to his gameplan and has regarded re-invigorated in his previous two fights, a pair of blowout determination wins the place he gained 30-27 on 5 of six scorecards, and 30-26 on the opposite.
He has been dismantling his opponents with leg kicks and takedowns in latest fights, securing seven of his 11 takedown makes an attempt in opposition to Joe Duffy and Lando Vannata, whereas out-landing them by a mixed vital strike margin of 103-40.
He’s the taller (+2 inches), longer (+2 inches), and sooner fighter in comparison with Fiziev, and since Diakiese by no means been completed, Fiziev seemingly has restricted paths to victory.
He might win a call on quantity – averaging greater than 4 vital strikes per minute in his first two UFC bouts, in comparison with 2.86 for Diakiese, however Diakiese has a substantial energy edge – and his capacity to vary ranges and blend it up extra often will probably attraction to the judges.
If Diakiese sticks to his gameplan and continues to cut away with these calf kicks within the early rounds, he’s going to be very troublesome to defeat from vary.
With a projected moneyline at -257, Diakiese presents substantial worth at his present odds.
Diakese vs. Fiziev Bets
Middleweight struggle: Jack Hermansson vs. Kelvin Gastelum
Crowdsourced Projections: Gastelum 61%
A pair of middleweights who want to get again within the win column will meet in Saturday night time’s co-main occasion.
Kelvin Gastelum seemingly presents slight worth as a projected favourite in what quantities to a decide’em struggle. The group would set his truthful moneyline odds nearer to -200 than even cash, at round -156.
Gastelum’s latest losses are in opposition to two very completed opponents – middleweight champion Israel Adesanya and No. 5 contender Darren Until – who will face the previous champion, Robert Whittaker, subsequent Saturday.
He’s at a big peak (Four inches) and attain (6 inches) drawback in opposition to Hermansson, who additionally fights at a better tempo than Gastelum (5.13 strikes landed per minute) with unbelievable effectivity (+2.57 vs. +0.74 strike differential).
Hermansson will attempt to use his wrestling to indicate Gastelum that he doesn’t belong within the middleweight division. He has averaged 2.23 takedowns per 15 minutes within the UFC (36% accuracy), and any time he spends with high management presents fewer alternatives for Gastelum to get the most effective of the placing.
When stepping in in opposition to highly effective strikers beforehand, nonetheless, Hermansson has suffered knockout losses in opposition to each Jared Cannonier and Thiago Santos.
If Gastelum can stuff his takedowns (62% protection), he might be able to land some large left fingers to place Hermansson to sleep probably.
The crowd projection set Gastelum’s knockout odds at +178, so it’s important to take a small stab at his KO/TKO prop (+375) along with taking part in his moneyline.
Gastelum vs. Hermansson Bets
- Gastelum -110 (0.5 items)
- Gastelum by KO/TKO (+375, 0.5 items)
Flyweight struggle: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Joseph Benavidez
Crowdsourced Projections: Figueiredo 75%
If you need a extra in-depth evaluation of the principle occasion, try my full struggle preview.
In brief, the gang expects a reasonably binary end result, predicting Figueiredo by KO/TKO 80% of the time and Benavidez by determination 65% of the time, relying upon who wins – making these truthful odds -150 for Figueiredo by KO/TKO, and +515 for Benavidez by determination.
Figueiredo is +135 (implied 42.5%) to win by KO/TKO within the betting market, a 17.5% edge in comparison with the projection at -150 (implied 60%), whereas Benavidez is barely +325 to win by determination, and presents no worth.
The projection sees the struggle ending inside the space 73% of the time, implied odds of -270, so betting the No – To Go the Distance (-200) presents about 6.3% of line worth.
Betting on Figueiredo to finish the rematch in the identical trend as he completed the primary struggle feels icky to me as a contrarian bettor, however I do suppose that you need to at the least have to put juice to play it.
Figueiredo vs. Benavidez Bets
- Figueiredo by KO/TKO (+135, 0.5 items)
Zerillo’s UFC Battle Night time Bets
- Arman Tsarukyan by determination -120 (0.5 items)
- Joel Alvarez +260 (0.5 items)
- Grant Dawson by Submission (+250, 0.5 items)
- Ariane Lipski by determination (+150, 0.5 items)
- Marc Diakese -156 (1 unit)
- Kelvin Gastelum -110 (0.5 items)
- Kelvin Gastelum by KO/TKO (+375, 0.5 items)
- Devieson Figueiredo by KO/TKO (+135, 0.5 items)
- Parlay: Grant Dawson / Arman Tsarukyan (+115, 1.5 items)