Whereas different main sports activities organizations proceed to work out the kinks to make sure completion of their upcoming schedules, the UFC accomplished 12 combat playing cards to date via the pandemic, together with their four-card occasion over at Struggle Island with none hiccups.
Now, they head again to dwelling soil this Saturday for UFC Struggle Evening: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan, dwell from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, the place #Eight Derek Brunson (20-7) seems to be to sluggish the rise of scorching prospect #9 Edmen Shahbazyan (11-0). This would be the evening’s new most important occasion, as Holly Holm vs. Irene Aldana was pulled and will likely be rebooked in October. The cardboard is scheduled for 11 fights in whole, all airing dwell on ESPN+, kicking off at 6 pm ET for the prelims, adopted up at 9 pm ET for the primary card.
UFC Struggle APEX 5 Particulars
DATE: SATURDAY 08/01/2020
BROADCAST: ESPN+
VENUE: UFC APEX
LOCATION: Las Vegas, Nevada
# MATCHES: 11
MAIN CARD
MIDDLEWEIGHT 185 LBS
#Eight DEREK BRUNSON 20-7 VS. #9 EDMEN SHAHBAZYAN 11-0
WOMEN’S FLYWEIGHT 125 LBS
#Three JOANNE CALDERWOOD 14-Four VS. #6 JENNIFER MAIA 17-6-1
WELTERWEIGHT 170 LBS
#11 VICENTE LUQUE 18-7-1 VS. RANDY BROWN 12-3
LIGHTWEIGHT 155 LBS
LANDO VANNATA 11-4-2 VS. BOBBY GREEN 25-10-1
MIDDLEWEIGHT 185 LBS
KEVIN HOLLAND 17-5 VS. TREVIN GILES 12-2
PRELIMS
BANTAMWEIGHT 135 LBS
FRANKIE SAENZ 12-6 VS. JONATHAN MARTINEZ 11-3
LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT 205 LBS
ED HERMAN 24-14 VS. GERALD MEERSCHAERT 31-13
BANTAMWEIGHT 135 LBS
RAY BORG 13-5 VS. NATE MANESS 11-1
*(CANCELED. JOHNNY MUNOZ WILL FILL IN FOR RAY BORG)*
MIDDLEWEIGHT 185 LBS
ERIC SPICELY 12-5 VS. MARKUS PEREZ 12-3
*(CANCELED)*
FEATHERWEIGHT 145 LBS
JAMALL EMMERS 17-5 VS. VINCE CACHERO 7-2
BANTAMWEIGHT 135 LBS
CHRIS GUTIERREZ 15-3-1 VS. CODY DURDEN 11-2
MAIN EVENT PREDICTION
#Eight DEREK BRUNSON 20-7 VS. #9 EDMEN SHAHBAZYAN 11-0
Athlete vs. a pure martial artist on this one. The very first thing to notice is that this most important occasion is three rounds, versus the same old 5 rounds. Undecided that may matter although, as we have now two fighters which have a really excessive proportion of fights ending inside spherical one. We are going to get into that, however first, let’s take a look at the 2 fighters we have now matched up. Brunson, the No. Eight ranked middleweight, has received his final two fights by way of unanimous resolution, after beforehand being KO’d twice consecutively inside of 1 spherical in opposition to present champ Israel Adesanya and Jacare Souza.
In 27 fights, Brunson has had the combat finish within the first spherical on 18 events. He’s a really awkward, quick starter, with nice hanging and above-average energy in his left hand. Brunson is the good athlete I discussed earlier, in comparison with his opponent right here, who’s a pure combined martial artist. Brunson was a aggressive cheerleader and wrestler in highschool and went on to obtain scholarships for each. In his school wrestling profession, he was a three-time Division II All-American. Instantly following school, he turned his consideration to combined martial arts, and after going 6-Zero in his first 12 months as a professional, he was signed by Strikeforce and finally made his option to the UFC. Traditionally his fights, Brunson tends to push ahead recklessly and cling his chin on the market for the taking. That is what has led to 71% of his losses coming by means of knockout. It seems he’s labored on not solely this but additionally including some endurance. He is made it to the ultimate bell in his final two fights. However in these fights, I nonetheless noticed this Achilles’ heel of his there, but neither opponent took benefit of it. Shahbazyan will.
“The Golden Boy” started coaching martial arts on the age of 9. He is been coaching because the age of 12, and in his teenagers, labored as a coaching companion for Ronda Rousey. Shahbazyan made his skilled debut about three years in the past, profitable his first combat in spectacular style, the place it took solely 43 seconds to TKO his opponent by way of head kick adopted by strikes. He went on to go 6-Zero within the California circuit, profitable all his fights by first-round knockout, resulting in an invite to combat on Dana White’s Tuesday Evening Contender Sequence in 2018. In that match, he once more received by way of TKO impressively, and in below one minute, resulting in a UFC contract for the then 20-year-old phenom. Since, Shahbazyan has gone 4-0, stretching his report to 11-0, with all however one coming by means of first-round end. Brunson will likely be a slight soar in opponent for Shahbazyan after he completed No. 15 Brad Tavares in simply over two minutes. I see this going very equally.
Coupling the truth that Shahbazyan is 3-Zero in opposition to southpaws (Brunson is as effectively), and the openings Brunson will present wherever this one goes, this makes for a really harmful matchup for Brunson. Shahbazyan may be very sharp and can decide his spots. He’ll in all probability land a fight-changing counter whereas avoiding Brunson’s left hand. There are two positions I like right here. Over 1.5 rounds is presumably in play, as each will play chess a bit and keep away from large photographs out of the shoots. We have seen this from Brunson in his final two fights.
At +100 on the over 1.5, it is price a glance. Shahbazyan profitable inside the space has a excessive chance, and with the TKO prop priced very comparably to the ITD, why not take the ITD at -155. The ML is simply too huge for my liking.
PREDICTION: EDMEN SHAHBAZYAN wins inside the space -155
OTHER WAGERS
#Three JOANNE CALDERWOOD 14-Four VS. #6 JENNIFER MAIA 17-6-1
Calderwood was set to face Shevchenko for the belt initially, and the combat was scrapped as Shevchenko pulled out with an harm. Maia’s authentic opponent examined constructive for COVID, so right here we’re. Calderwood will look to be the extra offensive fighter on this matchup, and I see the vast majority of this one on the ft. Maia hardly ever goes for takedowns with solely .25 takedowns avg per 15 minutes. That mentioned, Calderwood’s capacity to regulate the space whereas mixing in some leg kicks ought to end in her scoring extra within the judges’ eyes, leading to her staying on observe for that subsequent shot on the belt with almost certainly a choice win right here in a 29-28 kind combat.
PREDICTION: JOANNE CALDERWOOD -140 (look a DEC prop +100)
#11 VICENTE LUQUE 18-7-1 VS. RANDY BROWN 12-3
I like Luque on this spot. Brown is coming off of two straight wins, however earlier than that, he went 3-3. On the opposite aspect, Luque has received 7 of 8, and 6 of these wins have come by means of end. He is received 11 of his final 13, and in lots of these fights, he’s simply straight walked down his opponents moving into firefights they only don’t need. I took Luque at -175 and also will have a look at the TKO/KO prop at +250 at some spots. Luque’s final 5 finishes have been by means of TKO/KO, and his SLpM at 5.66 compared to Brown’s 3.41 will likely be seen in there.
PREDICTION: VICENTE LUQUE -175 (have a look at TKO/KO prop at +250)
KEVIN HOLLAND 17-5 VS. TREVIN GILES 12-2
Trevis Giles dropped two in a row, and it was nearly three in opposition to a man that had at some point discover. (James Krause). I’ve been improper earlier than, however I imagine Giles is right here for a paycheck. He is centered on his profession as a full-time police officer, which has led to restricted coaching time. Holland could have the scale and output benefit.
PREDICTION: KEVIN HOLLAND -210
LANDO VANNATA 11-4-2 VS. BOBBY GREEN 25-10-1
These two fought to a attract 2017 in an awesome combat that I assumed Inexperienced edged out. Inexperienced simply decisively beat Clay Guida a month in the past and has momentum behind him. On high of that, Inexperienced ought to have a greater fuel tank and can decide him aside on the ft whereas avoiding the massive energy photographs from Lando. It is nearly as if Inexperienced is offended that Lando needs to combat him once more, so watch Inexperienced guarantee a transparent option to victory so long as he avoids Lando’s well-known flashy stuff. This needs to be combat.
PREDICTION: BOBBY GREEN +130
ED HERMAN 24-14 VS. GERALD MEERSCHAERT 31-13
Herman appeared good lately, stringing collectively two wins in opposition to Khadis Ibragimov and Patrick Cummins. He additionally dropped a break up in opposition to Gian Villante in a really shut combat. Meerschaert is returning six weeks after struggling a spherical one TKO loss to Ian Heinisch again in June. Herman has a chin and could have extra energy on the ft with an awesome clinch recreation. It is no secret Meerschaert will look to get this one right down to work his power in submissions, however ought to wrestle, as Herman is hard to submit, and hasn’t misplaced in that style for over seven years.
On high of that, the final two guys which have submitted Herman are Jacare Souza and Demian Maia—ever heard of them? Herman has been coaching for a while now and will likely be able to go. He is had two fights in opposition to Da Un Jung canceled over the past 4 months, so in steps Meerschaert, once more fairly rapidly after a TKO. Search for a loud nook in Herman’s nook with no followers in attendance in an awesome canine spot for the 14-year UFC vet.
PREDICTION: ED HERMAN +155
RAY BORG 13-5 VS. NATE MANESS 11-1
*(CANCELED. JOHHNY MUNOZ WILL FILL IN FOR RAY BORG)*
Though he could have a nine-inch attain benefit, is a No. 1 Kentucky circuit featherweight on a debut to beat the previous world title contender? It seems like he is been tied up working 12-hour building days within the final couple of weeks.
PREDICTION: RAY BORG -235
CHRIS GUTIERREZ 15-3-1 VS. CODY DURDEN 11-2
Gutierrez was set to face a a lot higher-ranked opponent in Luke Sanders, although Sanders withdrew, opening up a spot for Atlanta’s Cody Durden. Durden is recent off a TKO victory in simply over a minute in opposition to John Sweeney, which put him at a seven-fight profitable streak, all by means of end. He has some expertise in kickboxing and boxing and is nice on the ft with the flexibility to change stances whereas mixing issues up, whereas continually shifting ahead, urgent the tempo. Durden additionally has nice grappling, and I would not be shocked if we see him take Gutierrez down in some unspecified time in the future, scoring from the highest. He is very aggressive, and I imagine he’ll shock some people right here. Gutierrez is coming off a formidable win in opposition to Vince Morales, the place he picked him aside with leg kicks and had the combat received early on, finally by way of end within the second. If Gutierrez can management the vary, he’ll have the ability to take this one, although Durden’s strain and skill to combine the wrestling with the standup, he is on this combat, for my part. The road is huge sufficient to seize my consideration.
PREDICTION: CODY DURDEN +285
FULL MAIN CARD & PRELIM PREDICTIONS
- EDMEN SHAHBAZYAN defeats DEREK BRUNSON
- JOANNE CALDERWOOD defeats JENNIFER MAIA
- VICENTE LUQUE defeats RANDY BROWN
- BOBBY GREEN defeats LANDO VANNATA
- KEVIN HOLLAND defeats TREVIN GILES
- JONATHAN MARTINEZ defeats FRANKIE SAENZ
- ED HERMAN defeats GERALD MEERSCHAERT
- JAMALL EMMERS defeats VINCE CACHERO
- CHRIS GUTIERREZ 15-3-1 VS. CODY DURDEN 11-2
UFC FIGHT NIGHT BET SUMMARY
- EDMEN SHAHBAZYAN wins inside the space -155
- JOANNE CALDERWOOD -140 (look a DEC prop +100)
- VICENTE LUQUE -175 (have a look at TKO/KO prop at +250)
- KEVIN HOLLAND -210
- BOBBY GREEN +130
- ED HERMAN +155
- CODY DURDEN +285
Struggle card predictions total: 223-123-6 (65%)
Focused matchups (wagers): 87-37-2 (70%)
UFC FIGHT NIGHT DFS Performs & DFS Methods
- Select lively fighters. Coupling an lively fighter on his/her option to a unanimous resolution will provide you with key factors to your crew. Similar to every other DFS conventional sport, you need the lively, offensive participant that scores. Key metrics listed here are SLpM and TD AVG/15min.
- Play the heavyweights. The approximate total end charge within the UFC is 54%. Many of the weight divisions vary from 40%-60%, whereas the heavyweights push a 75% end charge. You’ll obtain bonus factors for finishes inside the space.
- Strive all the time to incorporate the primary occasion or title fights. 5 spherical fights imply extra time to rack up factors if you happen to decide the suitable fighter. In some circumstances, even when you have the loser, the factors might be greater than a three-round winner.
- Don’t get excited and rush a decide primarily based on stats, think about pattern measurement. Some fighters have restricted fights in comparison with their opponents when metrics. Stats could possibly be exaggerated. Do your analysis. Look ahead to spots with debuting fighters as effectively. At all times examine the data of the opponents they confronted on their option to the UFC. At all times pull combat tape as effectively. You’d be shocked at what you will see.
- Assessment strategies of victory. I provide the end charges inside this text, and as you dive in, you may examine technique of victory to technique of loss for the matchups. For instance, yow will discover matchups the place Fighter A has a excessive proportion of submission victories matched with Fighter B, with a excessive proportion of submission losses.
As talked about within the tip sheet above, right here’s my MMA DFS Warmth Chart for UFC Struggle Evening APEX 5. As you may see, the chart is ranked primarily based on combat end odds. Struggle finishes are the place the factors are in MMA DFS. Take a look on the stack, and we’ll break down the person matchups under.
Two key offensive metrics are strikes and takedowns. They get off on their opponents and watch your factors rack up rapidly. Here is my Offensive Output Meter for the cardboard. With this chart, you may examine historic fighter averages in these two key metrics as I rank all fighters taking part Saturday.
Historic hanging differential comparisons
(Strikes landed minus strikes absorbed)
UFC Struggle Evening Apex 5 Last Suggestions
- Fighters that usually press the motion, land takedowns, and/or excessive end charges matched up in opposition to those who get completed, roster. (see my charts above)
- Check out the primary occasion. Though this one is just three rounds, I nonetheless actually like Shahbazyan.
- Fights projected to not go the space embody:
- Brunson/Shahbazyan -385
- Spicely/Perez -195 *(CANCELED)*
- Brown/Luque -185
- Herman/Meerschaert -175
- Holland/Giles -155
- Prime-tier fighters to construct round embody Shahbazyan, Luque & Holland.
- Mid-tier fighter issues are Perez & Martinez.
- Reside Canines are Inexperienced, Herman & Durden.
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